by Anthony Egan SJ

We have a new pope: Robert Francis Prevost OSA. And most of us didn’t predict him.

To paraphrase 19th Century novelist Jane Austen, it is a truth, (nearly) universally acknowledged, that a cardinal entering a conclave as pope re-emerges from it a cardinal. I say nearly because there are occasions, e.g. Ratzinger, where there was little surprise as to who would win. With regard to this last conclave, my sense is that favourites to win, particularly in social media, were deeply rooted in one’s ideological view of the Church. 

Progressive Catholics, particularly those committed to stronger synodality and church reform, hoped for (as opposed to predicted) cardinals like Luis Tagle (of the Philippines), Mario Grech (Malta), Matteo Zuppi (Italy), or Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg). The fact that Francis had largely created the last conclave by his appointments seemed to favour them. They were mistaken.

Some observers, however, noting the tensions in the Church over Francis’ papacy, suggested that there might be a move more to the centre, focusing their attention on Pietro Parolin of Italy. They too were mistaken – in their attention at least.

Conservatives pinned their hopes on people like Péter Erdő (Hungary), Robert Sarah (Guinea) or even Raymond Burke of the United States. The latter was considered at least as a kind of papal kingmaker, one who could rally the forces for the defence of a more traditional faith around him to elect a successor of Peter who could save the Church from the heresies of Francis and synodalism! He himself, no! After all, it is a truth, universally acknowledged, that no American (specifically North American, in particular United States citizen) will ever become pope!

We all overlooked the delightfully twisted humour of the Holy Spirit. 
Or indeed that in Francis we had already had an American pope, because America is geographically one continuous landmass stretching from the Arctic to the Antarctic, albeit split into two continents by the Panama Canal. 
In Robert Francis Prevost, we have the humour and wisdom of the Holy Spirit. A United States-born missionary to Peru, a citizen of both countries, he is, like his predecessor, a member of a religious order (the Augustinians). He is, in his commitment to the poor and to Francis’ vision of synodality, a logical successor to Francis. Yet he is seen to be more centrist than progressive in other matters. He appeals to, or at least appeases, conservatives on doctrinal matters, while thankfully seems more open to debates than trying to shut them down. 

Above all, his track record seems to be a holy pastor more than a holy emperor or diplomat. Yet in the latter, it's noted that he has already taken a strong and decisive stand on Ukraine, indeed stronger than Francis. So we might see in some areas a more ‘activist’ pontificate, particularly in global affairs.

It is a mistake, however, to try to map out in detail what Pope Leo’s reign will be. Popes are unpredictable, as more often than not are their elections. Call that the humour of the Holy Spirit.